AI · Investing · Macro · Geopolitics · History

Next up

Anthropic's IPO against every giant IPO since Netscape

Revenue, cash and valuation at listing for Netscape, Google, Facebook, Alibaba, Arm and now Anthropic, on one chart.

Coming

Two companies are 34% of America's earnings growth

Nvidia and Micron against the other 498. The last times earnings concentration got this narrow, and what followed.

Coming

Boeing's fall, next to every other fallen champion

GE, IBM, Intel, Kodak and Boeing from their peak. How long dominance lasts and how fast it goes.

Coming

Israel's election, priced by the markets

Netanyahu at 52% with $11M of bets a day. Prediction-market odds against the polls through every Israeli election since 2019.

Coming

China wants ten-year DRAM contracts. Here's why.

Memory prices, capacity and who owns the fabs since 1990. The chip nobody talks about is the chokepoint.

Coming

Prediction markets are eating the news

Polymarket and Kalshi volume by month, by category, against TV ratings and polling spend.

Coming

Brazil, the real, and every Latin American swing

What the currency did after each left-right turn in Brazil, Argentina, Chile and Mexico since 1990.