Israel voted. Nobody won. The bettors had it first.

Atlas Research, 29 October 2026. The charts, the data and the code are in a marimo notebook you can open and rerun.

A year ago Benjamin Netanyahu was a coin flip. The war against Iran made him a 62% favourite in March. The strait that stayed shut sank him to 28% by September. On election night the exit polls said tie and the bettors said Gadi Eisenkot at 65%. By three in the morning the count had flipped both. Netanyahu won 26 seats, nobody got to 61, Tel Aviv sold off by lunch, and everyone in Tehran is now watching the sky and the calendar for November 3.

The bet, one year

Polymarket's "next prime minister of Israel" market has traded every day since November 2025. It is the cleanest record there is of what people with money thought would happen.

• November 2025: Netanyahu 52%. Eisenkot's contract trades at 2%.
• 28 February 2026: the US and Israel strike Iran and Iran closes Hormuz. Netanyahu peaks at 62% on 4 March.
• 17 March: 40%. The war stops being popular the moment the strait stays shut.
• 17 June: the Islamabad memorandum pauses the fighting. Netanyahu 32%.
• 27 July: Eisenkot overtakes at 51%.
• September: Netanyahu's low, 28%.
• 25 October, two days out: Netanyahu 27%, Eisenkot 50%.

Election night, hour by hour

Polls closed at 22:00 Israel time. Channels 11 and 13 called it 51 to 51, Channel 12 had Netanyahu's bloc at 52. Turnout was 77.7%, the highest in more than two decades. Opposition leaders declared victory on air.

The market did not believe it for long. Eisenkot was at 62% an hour before the polls closed. By midnight UTC he was at 41% and Netanyahu at 43%. By 03:00 UTC, with nearly half the vote counted and Netanyahu's bloc at 55, the market had him at 52% and Eisenkot at 22%. The television graphics caught up the next morning.

The count

At 90% counted the Knesset looks like this. Official results are due on 4 November.

Netanyahu's bloc has 53, the opposition 48, the Arab parties a record 19. A majority is 61. Eisenkot cannot get there without the Arab parties, and most of his own bloc rules that out. Netanyahu lost six seats and will probably remain prime minister. Both of those things are true, and the chart shows why.

This was the first Knesset since 1988 to serve its full four years. Naftali Bennett, polling at 24 seats in the spring, finished with 12.

What it cost by lunch

Wednesday 28 October, before a single coalition meeting:

• iShares Israel ETF, New York: -4.9%
• Tel Aviv 35: -2.3%
• Shekel against the dollar: -2.2%, to 3.12, the weakest close in six months
• Israel 10-year yield: +8 basis points
• Brent crude: -2.6%, to $111

The market had priced a change of government. It got a deadlock that could take weeks to resolve.

What happens next

1. Official results on 4 November. President Herzog then hands one person the mandate and seven days. Netanyahu stays caretaker prime minister throughout.
2. US midterms on 3 November. Trump urged Israelis to re-elect Netanyahu so the two could "finish the job" in Iran, then claimed credit for the result.
3. Netanyahu to supporters on Wednesday: a rare chance, alongside Trump, "to remove the existential threat of Iran once and for all." Eisenkot the same day: "Netanyahu, do not dare use Israel's security for your political needs."
4. US media report the military is prepared to strike within days if ordered. In Tehran, residents have set up groups to warn each other when they hear jets.
5. The Strait of Hormuz has been closed for 241 days and Brent is $111. A second round puts every number in this piece back on the board.

Eisenkot is not the dove in this story. He backed the strikes on Iran and called Trump's decision courageous. The posture on Iran changes far less than the odds did.

Sources

1. Polymarket, next prime minister of Israel, price history pulled 28 Oct 2026. https://polymarket.com/event/next-prime-minister-of-israel
2. Jerusalem Post, election night timeline, 28 Oct 2026. https://www.jpost.com/israel-election-2026/article-913053
3. Ynet, bloc at 55 with half counted, 28 Oct 2026. https://www.ynetnews.com/article/skd97fc2gl
4. Wikipedia, 2026 Israeli legislative election, CEC results at 90.2%. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Israeli_legislative_election
5. Iran International, Netanyahu raises prospect of new Iran strikes, 28 Oct 2026. https://www.iranintl.com/en/202610282156
6. Al Jazeera, what happens after the results, 27 Oct 2026. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/10/27/israel-election-results-2026-when-will-we-know-who-won-and-whats-next
7. CNBC, Israeli bonds and shekel fall, 28 Oct 2026. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/28/israel-election-netanyahu-trump-gaza-.html
8. Times of Israel, Tel Aviv stocks drop and shekel slides, 28 Oct 2026. https://www.timesofisrael.com/tel-aviv-stocks-drop-and-shekel-slides-as-election-results-dent-hopes-for-change/
9. Globe and Mail via Reuters, Israeli stocks fall, currency weakens, 28 Oct 2026. https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/article-israeli-election-stocks-market-currency-reaction/
10. Jerusalem Post, Netanyahu fears war with Iran could hand election to Eisenkot, Oct 2026. https://www.jpost.com/israel-election-2026/article-911761
11. Al Jazeera, Iranians brace for renewed attacks after the elections, 27 Oct 2026. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/10/27/iranians-will-their-eyes-on-the-sky-for-bomb-when-israeli-us-elections-end
12. Yahoo Finance, EIS, ILS=X and BZ=F closes, 27 and 28 Oct 2026.